2024 snapshot: Commercial Court claims at a decade low

Solomonic’s year-end analysis highlights key trends from 2024, revealing a sharp drop in Commercial Court activity, a slowdown in new group actions and a plateau in winding up petitions.

The High Court’s Commercial Court has seen its quietest year in a decade, as 2024 draws to a close with a notable drop in claims. This decline comes amidst a slowdown in new group actions, fewer headline-grabbing disputes and a flattening of winding up petitions. Our end-of-year snapshot explores the trends shaping this downturn and highlights just a few key developments that have defined the Court's evolving landscape over the past 12 months.

Commercial Court activity

This year has seen a notable decline in new claims issued in the Commercial Court, which is heading towards its lowest overall new claim volume in over a decade. Whilst 2023 saw one of the busiest years, driven in part by an influx of aircraft leasing and business interruption Covid-19 claims, the number of claims has generally followed a downward trend. Currently, the volume of claims in Q4 2024 stands at just 79 - the lowest quarterly figure recorded in the past decade - and, with only a few weeks left in the year, it is unlikely to climb much higher. At the moment 2024 is 41% down on 2023 and 32% below the average for the last 5 years. Throughout 2024, claim volumes have steadily declined, falling from 133 in Q1 to just 79 in Q4 so far. This drop-off raises questions about underlying factors influencing the market.

New group actions and ongoing count

As it stands, new group actions have seen a 23% decline during 2024 on the average for the last 3 years. The dampening effect of the PACCAR decision (July 2023) and a slowdown in resolution means capital and appetite for new risk has been more limited. Challenges in securing litigation are likely to continue until we see some cases reach a conclusion. Reports of a lower than expected Merricks Mastercard settlement will have put the cat amongst the pigeons. In contrast, the Appeal Court decision on motor finance “secret” commission payments has the potential to open a whole new raft of claims in 2025, though the Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal that decision.

On the subject of cases reaching a conclusion, the volume of group action cases that are ongoing is very substantial. Active group action cases have been at an all time high in Q3/Q4 of 2024, an almost 88% increase on levels in 2020. We also know, thanks to media reports, that there are more significant cases on the horizon, particularly in the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT).

Winding up petitions

Winding up petitions, regarded as a bellwether for economic health, haven’t continued their upward trajectory and appear to have stabilised in 2024. This plateau may signal a turning point, hinting at potential economic recovery, although Q4 has seen an increase on the previous two quarters. For practitioners, this trend could mean a recalibration in insolvency-related work, although for the moment volumes remain the highest they have been since the start of 2020.

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